A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
