🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.